Extreme Caution in Burn Areas

911 dispatchers are sending resources to La Canada and La Crescenta CA on several debris flows in the burn area, use extreme caution for potential flash flooding. Heavy rainfall continues across Southern California and hillsides are now saturated.

Forecast:SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...EXTREMELY MOIST FLOW OF AIR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. THE AFTERNOON RAINFALL ENHANCEMENT ARRIVED ON SCHEDULE AND IS NOW FOCUSING ON LA COUNTY WITH RAINFALL RATES PEAKING AT ONE HALF TO ONE INCH PER HOUR. THESE RATES WILL START TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING IN MOST AREAS, THOUGH A FAVORABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS ERN LA COUNTY MOST OF THE NIGHT. IN ADDITION, ANOTHER BURST OF HEAVIER RAIN IS EXPECTED TO HIT SLO AND SBA COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT, AND INTO VENTURA AND LA COUNTIES MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE FOLLOWED BY AT LEAST TWO MORE BURSTS OF HEAVY RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THOUGH TIMING THESE IMPULSES BEYOND ABOUT 12 HOURS IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE. SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT SO CAL WILL REMAIN VERY MUCH UNDER THE GUN IN TERMS OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE MODELS ARE EXHIBITING RATHER EXTREME DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING THE SPECIFIC DETAILS OF THE FORECAST, MOST NOTABLY WHERE THE PLUME OF HIGHEST MOISTURE WILL BE AND THE EXTENT OF LOW LVL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. AS AN EXAMPLE, THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHIFTING THE PLUME EAST OF LA COUNTY TUESDAY WHILE THE NAM HOLDS IT BACK FURTHER WEST OVER LA/VTU AND ERN SBA COUNTIES, RESULTING IN A HUGE DIFFERENCE IN RAINFALL POTENTIAL FOR THOSE AREAS. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS STICKING WITH THE WETTER NAM. AS SUCH, THE FORECAST THROUGH WED CALLS FOR ANOTHER 8-15 INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND SOUTH FACING SLOPES FROM SRN SBA COUNTY THROUGH ERN LA COUNTY AND 3 TO 8 INCHES FOR COAST AND VALLEYS. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION ARE EXPECTED TO BE 3 TO 5 INCHES.