Fire Weather

ON THURSDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD TO THE NORTH, RESULTING IN A SLIGHT OFFSHORE TREND IN THE GRADIENTS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY EARLIER BURNOFF FOR THE INLAND AREAS SO A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING EXPECTED THERE. HOWEVER, AT THE COAST STILL LOOKING FOR CLOUDS TO LINGER THERE INTO THE AFTERNOON SO LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS EXPECTED. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS FRIDAY REGARDING THE LOCATION OF THE WEAK UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST AS WELL AS THE AMOUNT OF WARMING EXPECTED IN THE LOWER LEVELS. WITH THE FIRST ISSUE, THE 12Z GFS HAS GONE OFF SCRIPT QUITE A BIT AND NOW KEEPS THE UPPER LOW CONSIDERABLY FARTHER WEST, AS IN OVER 600 MILES WEST. THIS IS IN HUGE CONTRAST TO THE EARLIER RUNS AS WELL AS THE MORNING RUNS OF THE NAM AND ECMWF, ALL OF WHICH MOVE THE LOW TO WITHIN A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES OF THE COAST. THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THIS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. WHILE ALL THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE VERY DRY, THE ADDITION OF SOME COOLING ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LOW WOULD HELP DESTABILIZE THINGS POSSIBLY ENOUGH TO SPRING AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER THE LOCAL MOUNTAINS. SINCE IT`S STILL VERY DRY BELOW ABOUT 700 MB, IT`S VERY POSSIBLE THAT DRY LIGHTNING WOULD BE THE MAIN RISK WITH MINIMAL PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND. FOR NOW, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE MODELS, HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE IN THE LOW POPS FOR THE MTNS. AND FOR CONSISTENCY, HAVE ADDED IN THE VENTURA COUNTY MTNS SINCE A SCENARIO LIKE THIS WOULDN`T NECESSARILY FAVOR THE LA COUNTY MTNS.