Red Flag Warning, for Santa Ana Winds: SO Cal and Bay Areas

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH is cancelled, Red Flag warning now in effect: STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

Fuels have started to recover with recent rains but certain fuels are still receptive to fire. Strong offshore flow warnings should be taken seriously across most of Southern California canyons and passess regardless of recent rains.

A COLD UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS TO VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE UPPER TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH AND STRENGTHEN INTO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EXTREME SERN CA OR THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY BY LATE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THRU THU NIGHT THEN DRIFT INTO AZ ON
FRI...ALTHO THE WRF IS QUICKER IN MOVING THE UPPER LOW EASTWARD...
WHILE THE EC IS SLOWEST. A SIGNIFICANT OFFSHORE WIND EVENT IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES TONIGHT THANKS TO
RAPIDLY INCREASING NORTHERLY GRADIENTS...PLENTY OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION...AND VERY STRONG N TO NE WINDS ALOFT AND AT LOWER LEVELS.
THE 12Z WRF WAS FORECASTING 850 MB WINDS TO BE AS HIGH AS 70 KT AT
TIMES...WITH 950 MB (1500 FT) WINDS AS HIGH AS 45 KT. WRF ISENTROPIC
CROSS SECTIONS AND OMEGA FIELDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PLENTY OF
DOWNWARD SUPPORT OF MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF HI WINDS TO LOWER LEVELS.
AS A RESULT...WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 80 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
L.A./VTU MTNS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA MTNS...UP TO 70 MPH IN THE
SANTA MONICA MTNS...AND AS HIGH AS 60-65 MPH IN THE VLYS OF VTU/L.A.
COUNTIES AND THE COASTAL AREAS OF L.A. COUNTY FROM LATER TONIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING. HOWEVER...WINDS OVER VTU COUNTY VLYS MAY NOT BE
QUITE AS STRONG TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING AS IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL
BE MORE NORTHERLY WHICH MAY LIMIT THE WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS TO
CERTAIN AREAS BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS SUCH AS IN AND AROUND LAKE
CASITAS AND THE VLYS OF EXTREME SE VTU COUNTY. WINDS SHOULD TURN NE
AND BECOME MUCH STRONGER THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING FOR THE VTU
COUNTY VLYS. AS A RESULT...THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE VTU VLYS
WILL BE FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR
FOR TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH WIND WARNINGS REMAIN
FOR MUCH OF L.A. COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF VTU COUNTY. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST LAXNPWLOX FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS AND
WIND ADVISORIES.

THE UPPER TROF MAY BRING SOME CLOUDINESS AT TIMES TO EASTERN L.A.
COUNTY THU INTO FRI...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO COOL SIGNIFICANTLY TO
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN ALL AREAS THU AND FRI. IN
ADDITION...WIDESPREAD FROST IN SHELTERED AREAS IS EXPECTED FOR THE
SLO INTERIOR VALLEYS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST
WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE OF THE SEASON WILL OCCUR FOR THIS AREA THU
NIGHT THANKS TO LIGHTER WINDS.

FOR FRI NIGHT AND SAT...THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FURTHER E WHILE
ANOTHER UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH OVER UTAH FRI NIGHT AND INTO NORTHERN
AZ ON SAT. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER SWRN CA THRU SAT. OFFSHORE
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN BY EARLY SAT...WITH GUSTY NE
WINDS POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES. THE STRONGEST WINDS
SHOULD BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH WARNING LEVEL WIND GUSTS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
VALLEYS AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME COASTAL AREAS AS WELL. IT APPEARS THAT
ANOTHER ROUND OF WIND ADVISORIES OR HIGH WIND WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED
FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPS OVER THE
REGION WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL THRU SAT. ANOTHER WIDESPREAD
HARD FREEZE LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR THE SLO INTERIOR VALLEYS FRI NIGHT.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...GFS AND ECMWF IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT FOR
SUN AND MON THEN START TO SHOW SOME RELATIVELY MINOR DIFFERENCES FOR
SWRN CA FOR TUE AND WED. BOTH MODELS KEEP LARGE UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE ERN PAC WITH A BROAD NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE MOST PART OVER
CA. THEY ALSO FORECAST THE UPPER LOW OVER AZ MOVING E SUN AND MON.
THE GFS FORECASTS A WEAK DISSIPATING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA
ON WED AS WELL. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY DRY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST
MAINLY NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS THRU TUE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY ENOUGH TO REACH ADVISORY LEVELS AT TIMES IN
THE VALLEYS AND MTNS OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
THEN TURN ONSHORE FOR WED ALONG WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE PERIOD. COLD NIGHTTIME TEMPS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED
AT LEAST THRU MON NIGHT...WITH PATCHY FROST IN THE COLD SHELTERED
VALLEYS.